Convertible financing by US-listed tech

Tech convertibles, 2024 to 2026 YTD

What we are testing

Hypothesis: a burst of convertible issuance marks a peak

Companies sell convertibles when they think their stock is expensive, so a convert deal should come near the stock's top and be followed by weak returns. If enough companies do it at once, heavy issuance should also come before a weak market.
We split the hypothesis into three predictions that the data can check. Each is scored from the studies below and recalculates with the filters.
Baseline ("any day"). Every deal figure is set against the same stocks measured exactly the same way, but starting from every trading day since 2020 instead of a deal day (about 293,000 stock-days): what you would see on any day with no deal. Where it matters the baseline is narrowed to the same year or the same run-up. A deal figure well above or below its baseline is the deal effect; one close to it is just the market.
Study 1 - the stock

Do companies issue converts when their own stock is at its high?

Study 2 - the stock

How close to its 52-week high was the stock on pricing day?

Study 3 - the stock, after the deal

Did the stock lag its sector after the deal?

Study 4 - the market

After the busiest months for convert issuance, what did the index do next?

Average index return after months in each issuance quartile

The ten busiest months before this year, and what came next

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